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Over the past six months, prepayment speeds of Ginnie Mae securities have notably widened against those of the GSEs.  In a recent post[1], we looked at the share of the use of the cash window for bank and nonbank sellers. We found a reversal in the long-term upward trend in this share this year, correlated with the imposition of FHFA imposed lender-level caps on the use of the cash window. We next turn to performance. We look below at prepayment speeds for the 2018, 2019 and 2020 cohorts broken down by bank and nonbank sellers.    We received the monthly GSE data download for the June book of business over the weekend and prepayment speeds dropped for the second consecutive month, with the 1-month CPR printed 22.4, the low posted since 17.1% was reached in February 2020 just before the onset of the pandemic.  Mortgage rates are of course the key driver here, but other issues matter as well, notably lending capacity. With the onset of the pandemic and the associated loosening of monetary policy and spike in demand for housing away from dense locations, the mortgage industry became overwhelmed. Originators were busy hiring and increased their capacity over the past 18 month to deal with the long period of refinancing activity. However, as prepayment speeds slow down, it appears that the capacity building may be overshooting. In response, originators have started to lower their underwriting standards to create enough volume to fully utilize the capacity.  Traditionally, the industry fine-tunes its production through tweaking its credit standards to keep its pipeline as full as possible. This is occurring now notably for refinance mortgages:  What we can see is that purchase demand remains strong, with the swing product being refinance mortgages. It is evident that lenders are trying to smooth out refinance production with countercyclical credit tightening and loosening. As credit scores are higher than was the case in the pre-pandemic period there is room to ease further, but the ultimate extent is highly uncertain.
In a recent post we discussed trends in the conforming purchase market by occupancy type[1]. In this note we look at performance metrics. To begin, we look at prepayment speeds. It’s important to note that certain fees (which Fannie Mae calls LLPA’s[2] and Freddie Mac calls Credit Fees[3]) vary by occupancy type, particularly for those with high LTV’s.     Recursion and New View Advisors February 2021 expanded HECM reverse mortgage prepayment indices can be found here: New View Advisors Recursion Cohort Speeds 02_2021. The indices are derived from underlying HECM data in HMBS made public by Ginnie Mae, as well as private sources. This new expanded set of prepayment data is calculated using dollar principal balance, not unit count.
The enhanced data set shows current trends in prepayment activity by product type and Principal Limit Factors (PLFs), and for current 12-month LIBOR PLFs by Expected Rate. HECM loans with higher Expected Rates originated in the year or so prior to the precipitous fall in interest rates brought on by the pandemic are experiencing higher prepayment rates. Therefore, we segregate indices for recent production 12-month LIBOR PLFs into Expected Rates greater than 4% and Expected Rates less than or equal to 4%. Prepayment speeds are expressed as annualized percentages in three categories: Total Payoffs, Payoffs Other Than Assignments, and Payoffs from Assignment. For each category, we calculate the 1-month, 3-month, 6-month and 12-month CPR, or annual rate of prepayment. For HMBS pools backed by adjustable rate HECMs using the Constant Maturity Treasury (CMT) index, prepayment speeds will begin to populate as more of these HMBS are issued. Just under $300 million of CMT HMBS are currently outstanding: other than some highly seasoned tail pools, none have been outstanding more than one month. Please contact us if you’re interested in customized stratification of HECM prepayment speeds by vintage, Expected Rate, Weighted Average Loan Age, or other tailored output. Debtwire cites Recursion Data within article on LoanDepot’s massive Ginnie Mae EBO activities3/17/2021
Debtwire quotes Recursion data showing a large uptick in LoanDepot’s Ginnie Mae portfolio over the month of February. In early reporting for March 2021, LoanDepot’s involuntary prepayment speed, or 1-month CDR, reached 20.6 percent.   New View Advisors and Recursion are introducing a set of expanded HECM reverse mortgage prepayment indices, which can be found here: New View Advisors Recursion Cohort Speeds 01_2021. The indices are derived from underlying HECM data in HMBS made public by Ginnie Mae, as well as private sources. This new expanded set of prepayment data is calculated using dollar principal balance, not unit count. Data presented are for HECMs outstanding as of January 31, 2021, representing 311,364 loans totaling $56.5 billion. Future updates of the indices will be available after the 6th business day of each month.
 MSCI’s MBS senior research analyst Yihai Yu shows how MSCI’s prepayment model closely tracked 2020’s month-by-month prepayment surge and how MBS prepayment regimes shifted in the past two decades using Recursion Data. The analysis was done using Recursion’s flagship product: Cohort Analyzer.
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