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On July 24, 2026 Commercial Mortgage Alert (CMA) published an article titled “Spree Continues as Citi Shops Agency License” which describes Citi’s efforts to sell its primary Fannie Mae multifamily lending license. There are only 25 such licenses outstanding at present. Citi possesses both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac licenses but “the bank has made significantly greater use of its Freddie license. Since 2016, it has originated $7.75 billion of Freddie multifamily loans and $1.52 billion of Fannie loans, according to Recursion Co. Year to date, its Freddie volume totals $194.2 million, compared with $11.0 million of Fannie loans.” Recursion is proud to be the premiere source of detailed lender-level data across the mortgage market.  The top story in the July 17, 2026, edition of Commercial Mortgage Alert entitled “Walker & Dunlop tops first-half Fannie league table: The agency lender is on its way to its eighth straight year as the top Fannie originator” cited Recursion data as its source. “Walker & Dunlop continues to dominate the league table for Fannie Mae multifamily loan originators. The lender wrote $4.89 billion of Fannie loans in the first half, $1.35 billion more than second-place CBRE, according to Recursion Co.” CMA went on to say that compared to rankings based on securitizations, “Recursion’s data looks at the single-loan securities at first issuance, prior to purchase by the agency or other third parties.”  On March 31 2026, the CFPB released its preliminary HMDA report for 2025[1]. The Home Mortgage Disclosure Act release is a comprehensive annual report covering loan-level mortgage originations and applications at the census tract level from over 4,700 lenders. The report contains essential data on borrower demographics, income, loan size, and rate, among many other fields. This note presents a quick summary of three topics: market size, lender type, and market concentration. Ⅰ. Market size  The number of loans originated in 2026 rose by 619k to 6,58 million. This was the highest figure since 2022, but the 4th-lowest number since 2000. The preponderance of the increase last year was due to a 512,000 increase in the origination of refinance loans, a 36% jump from 2024. Home improvement originations rose by about 22,000 (3.7%) while those for purchase loans edged up by 63,000 (1.9%). Elevated home prices and interest rates continue to be headwinds for new issuance. Ⅱ. Lender Type  The nonbank share of originations rose 1.6% to a record high of 72%. This is up by about 10% from 2019, just before the COVID-19 pandemic, and is almost double the 35.9% figure reported in 2011. Virtually all of the increase in loan production in the last two years has come from nonbanks. There were 1.1 million more loans originated in 2025 compared to 2023, of which only 0.7% came from banks. Ⅲ. Market concentration  In 2025, the two nonbanks, Rocket Mortgage and United Wholesale Mortgage, continued to dominate the origination market, with each holding shares above 6.0%. No other lender achieved a 2% share last year. The market became more concentrated, with the top 10 lender share rising to 23.9% in 2025 from 22.7% the prior year. Only two banks, JP Morgan and Bank of America, made the top 10 list in 2025, as US Bank, which was the number 9 lender the prior year, dropped out of the list in 2025. All this is just scratching the surface of all the information available in the HMDA release. A final version containing updates and more information will come out in the summer of 2026. On March 25, 2026, the Center for Responsible Lending (CRL) published a report called “A Policy-Related Reporting Change, Not Increasing Financial Distress, is Driving the Recent Increase in the FHA Serious Delinquency Rate.  The author notes that the FHA 90+ day delinquency rate rose sharply from 3.56% in September 2025 to 5.23% in January 2026 and attributed this increase to “how an FHA policy change is reported rather than increasing financial fragility among FHA borrowers.”
Recursion data is used throughout, including transition rates, Roll to Current and Early Buyout Rates. As always, Recursion is pleased to be considered the top source for cutting edge data analytics across the mortgage industry ecosystem. https://www.responsiblelending.org/research-publication/policy-related-reporting-change-not-increasing-financial-distress-drivin On January 9, 2026, Commercial Mortgage Alert (CMA) published an article “Berkadia Repeats Atop Agency Ranking” based on loans in structured agency CMBS. When single-family securitizations are included, “According to separate data from Recursion Co., Walker & Dunlop continued its dominance among Fannie lenders. Freddie Mac has been gravitating toward Fannie’s model through its use of single-loan securities called multifamily participation certificates, or Multi PCs. JLL was the top originator of loans backing those deals.”  Recursion is proud to be recognized as the premier provider of agency MBS data across the mortgage ecosystem.
Recursion Data Cited in Ad-Co Study of the Impact of Moving Away from the Tri-Merge Standard2/23/2026
On February 19, researchers at Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co) released a paper entitled “The Impact of Moving Away From The Tri-Merge Standard” in which they examined the potential impact of moving from this standard for determining which credit score to apply to a borrower, to a bi-merge or single-score standard. Using Recursion data, the researchers demonstrate that moving away from a tri-merge score raises the risk of higher up-front fees, or in the case of low-score borrowers, raises the risk of credit denial.  Recursion is always pleased to contribute the industry’s most reliable data and trusted analytic tools to top researchers to enhance the discussion of policy issues of importance across the mortgage landscape.
On January 9, 2026, Commercial Mortgage Alert (CMA) published an article “Berkadia Repeats Atop Agency Ranking” based on loans in structured agency CMBS. When single-family securitizations are included, “According to separate data from Recursion Co., Walker & Dunlop continued its dominance among Fannie lenders. Freddie Mac has been gravitating toward Fannie’s model through its use of single-loan securities called multifamily participation certificates, or Multi PCs. JLL was the top originator of loans backing those deals.”  Recursion is proud to be recognized as the premier provider of agency MBS data across the mortgage ecosystem.
The Structured Financed Journal just published “Reassessing the Single-Family Agency CMO Market: Implications for MBS Pool Liquidity” by Recursion Chief Research Officer Richard Koss. The paper leverages Recursion’s cutting-edge analytic tools in the cloud to create a new benchmark for the Collateralized Mortgage Obligation market based on a rigorous analysis that connects CMO assets and liabilities. The paper goes on to compute lockup ratios for pools that starts with outstanding balances and subtracts the portion that is locked up in CMOs and the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. The remaining portion is the size of the available market. This work has broad applications for traders, portfolio managers, risk managers, policymakers and researchers. https://structuredfinance.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/SFJournal_Reassessing-the-Single-Family-Agency-CMO-Market_Implications-for-MBS-Pool-Liquidity.pdf  |
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