• HOME
  • solutions
    • RECURSION ANALYZERS
    • Agency XRay
    • Mortgage Company Data
    • Recursion DataCloud
    • Customized Solutions
  • BLOG
  • CLIENT LOGIN
    • Agency XRAY
    • Recursion Analyzers
  • ABOUT US
    • OVERVIEW
    • OUR TEAM
    • Recursion In News
    • STRATEGIC PARTNER
  • CONTACT
RECURSION CO
  • HOME
  • solutions
    • RECURSION ANALYZERS
    • Agency XRay
    • Mortgage Company Data
    • Recursion DataCloud
    • Customized Solutions
  • BLOG
  • CLIENT LOGIN
    • Agency XRAY
    • Recursion Analyzers
  • ABOUT US
    • OVERVIEW
    • OUR TEAM
    • Recursion In News
    • STRATEGIC PARTNER
  • CONTACT
BLOG

The Macro View on Multifamily

3/25/2021

 
We have commented previously about housing and the “K-shaped Recovery”[1] in which home prices are booming but rent increases are decelerating. This dichotomy is highly unusual but reflects the flight of households out of dense urban environments due to the Covid-19 pandemic. With rents decelerating, it is not surprising that starts of new multifamily units have been in a trend decline over the past year.
Picture
​The situation for the MF debt market is more nuanced. The onset of the pandemic barely dented the growth rate of new Agency issuance last year, and in fact there was a substantial jump in GSE issuance at the end of the year.
Picture
Run Underlying Query
​The Agency share of the MF market is not as dominant as is the case for single family securities, but its influence did increase sharply over the course of 2020. MF Mortgage Debt Outstanding (MDO) rose a record $42.3 billion in the fourth quarter, almost completely accounted for by the rise in volumes from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This surge in GSE outstanding mf debt In Q4 2020 pushed the Agency share up by a single quarter record 1.2% to reach a record 47.8%.
Picture
How will these trends evolve in 2021? The single biggest question is whether the recent sharp increase in the GSE share is the result of the Enterprises looking to front-run new limits on their 2021 business imposed last year[2], or whether private sector lenders have backed off due to the deteriorating environment for rents. This is a very complex calculation that depends on such factors as the outlook for the virus, and the degree to which the outflow of population from the most crowded cities may slow, or partially reverse. Finally, there is the potential for policy changes aimed at the multifamily market later in the year. While the surge in house prices grabs our attention, what happens in the lower arm of the “K” is of great importance.

[1] https://www.recursionco.com/blog/the-fha-share-of-purchase-mortgages-and-the-k-shaped-recovery
[2] https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/FHFA-Announces-2021-MF-Loan-Purchase-Caps-for-Fannie-and-Freddie.aspx

    Archives

    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    May 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019

    Tags

    All
    Banking
    CMBS
    Cohort Analyzer
    Commercial Mortgage
    COVID 19
    CRT Analyzer
    Early Buyout
    EBO
    Fed Policy
    FHA
    Forbearance
    Ginnie Mae
    GSE
    HECM Analyzer
    HMDA Analyzer
    Mortgage Market
    Pool Level Analyzer
    Prepayment
    Recursion Achievement
    Recursion In News
    Reverse Mortgage
    Risk
    RMBS
    Team Building
    UMBS
    Underwriting

RECURSION

SOLUTIONS ​
Recursion Analyzers
​Agency XRay
​
Mortgage Company Data
Recursion DataCloud
Customized Solutions


ABOUT US  ​
Overview
​Our team
​Strategic Partner
CLIENT LOGIN   ​
Recursion Analyzers
​
Agency XRay

CONTACT

224 West 30th St., Suite 303, New York, NY 10001
Contact Us

Picture
Copyright © 2020 Recursion, Co. All rights reserved.​
  • HOME
  • solutions
    • RECURSION ANALYZERS
    • Agency XRay
    • Mortgage Company Data
    • Recursion DataCloud
    • Customized Solutions
  • BLOG
  • CLIENT LOGIN
    • Agency XRAY
    • Recursion Analyzers
  • ABOUT US
    • OVERVIEW
    • OUR TEAM
    • Recursion In News
    • STRATEGIC PARTNER
  • CONTACT