• HOME
  • solutions
    • RECURSION ANALYZERS
    • Mortgage Company Data
    • Recursion DataCloud
    • Customized Solutions
  • BLOG
  • CLIENT LOGIN
    • Recursion Analyzers
  • ABOUT US
    • OVERVIEW
    • OUR TEAM
    • News & Events >
      • Recursion In News
      • Recursion Data Citations
  • CONTACT
RECURSION CO
  • HOME
  • solutions
    • RECURSION ANALYZERS
    • Mortgage Company Data
    • Recursion DataCloud
    • Customized Solutions
  • BLOG
  • CLIENT LOGIN
    • Recursion Analyzers
  • ABOUT US
    • OVERVIEW
    • OUR TEAM
    • News & Events >
      • Recursion In News
      • Recursion Data Citations
  • CONTACT
BLOG

Refi Roller Coaster

12/10/2020

 
For some time, we have been talking about the key driver of mortgage performance is policy rather than fundamentals. This theme is certainly evident with the release of agency prepayment data for November[1]. The chart below chart displays the gap between the 1M prepayment speeds between Ginnie Mae and GSE securities:
Picture
Run Underlying Query
What stands out the most in this chart is the sudden burst of volatility in this figure which began at the start of 2020. A key factor behind the pickup in conforming speeds relative to Government programs at the beginning of the year was the growing popularity of property inspection wavers:
Picture
Run Underlying Query
Use of these waivers accelerated starting in March as the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic dissuaded the use of on-site property inspections.

There are, however, distinct policy actions that have had an impact of prepayments:
  1. June 2020: Change in the Ginnie Mae pool rule regarding resecuritization of loans bought out of Ginnie Mae securities. (Short-term positive for Ginnie Speeds vs GSE speeds)[2]
  2. September 2020 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac announce imposition of 0.5% fee on deliveries of refinance loans to the GSEs commencing December 1. (Short term positive for GSE speeds relative to GNM speeds).[3]

Interestingly, the speed gap in November at 3 bps is very much in the center of the range in evidence for much of 2018 and 2019, so the roller coaster has returned to its home base. Looking out to 2021, there is ample scope for another ride given the potential for volatility around such issues as GSE reform and the disposition of loans once forbearance expires.

[1] https://www.recursionco.com/blog/policy-primacy
[2] https://www.ginniemae.gov/issuers/program_guidelines/Pages/mbsguideapmslibdisppage.aspx?ParamID=109
[3] https://www.housingwire.com/articles/fhfa-delays-refinance-fee-start-date-to-dec-1/

    Archives

    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    May 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019

    Tags

    All
    Affordability
    Bank\Nonbank
    Borrower Assistant Plan
    Cash Window
    Climate Change
    CMBS
    CMO
    Conforming Loan
    Conventional Loan
    COVID 19
    CPR\CDR\CRR\CCR
    Credit Score\DTI\LTV
    CRT\CAS\STACR
    Delinquency
    Early Buyout
    ESG
    ET Pools
    Fannie Mae
    Fed
    FHA
    FHFA
    Forbearance
    Foreclosure
    Foreign Investor
    Freddie Mac
    Ginnie Mae
    Green Loans
    HECM
    HMDA
    HUD
    LMI
    Manufactured Housing
    Modified Loans
    MSR
    Multifamily
    Occupancy Type\NOO
    Partial Claim
    Payoff
    PIW
    Prepayment
    Purchase Loans
    Recursion In News
    Refi Loans
    RG Pools
    Rural Housing
    Single Family
    Special Eligibility Program
    TBA Market
    TIC
    TPO
    UMBS
    US Treasury
    VA

RECURSION

SOLUTIONS ​
Recursion Analyzers
​
Mortgage Company Data
Recursion DataCloud
Customized Solutions


ABOUT US  ​
Overview
​Our team
CLIENT LOGIN   ​
Recursion Analyzers

CONTACT

224 West 30th St., Suite 303, New York, NY 10001
Contact Us

Picture
Copyright © 2022 Recursion, Co. All rights reserved.​
  • HOME
  • solutions
    • RECURSION ANALYZERS
    • Mortgage Company Data
    • Recursion DataCloud
    • Customized Solutions
  • BLOG
  • CLIENT LOGIN
    • Recursion Analyzers
  • ABOUT US
    • OVERVIEW
    • OUR TEAM
    • News & Events >
      • Recursion In News
      • Recursion Data Citations
  • CONTACT