Debtwire cites Recursion Data within article on LoanDepot’s massive Ginnie Mae EBO activities3/17/2021
Debtwire quotes Recursion data showing a large uptick in LoanDepot’s Ginnie Mae portfolio over the month of February. In early reporting for March 2021, LoanDepot’s involuntary prepayment speed, or 1-month CDR, reached 20.6 percent.
Quoting Recursion Data, Debtwire reported that Non-Bank EBOs fell back in February, even though the level is still multiple times greater than the average recorded across most months in 2020.
The analysis was performed using Recursion’s flagship product: Cohort Analyzer. Data released last evening showed that total delinquencies for loans in Fannie Mae pools were unchanged in February at 3.6% in February, the first month that the rate did not decline since the Covid-19 Pandemic struck last spring. Notably, the same rate for Freddie Mac pools declined by 0.2% to 2.9%, the low reached since April 2020.
Recursion data was quoted in the January 27th, 2021 Debtwire article on the growing volume of distressed residential loans. The author used Recursion data to observe that the supply of GNM Early Buyouts (EBOs) among non-banks has been rising for months, which indicates that the supply of non-performing loans may be expected to rise when the forbearance program ends.
So once again we look at the theme of 2021 as a transition year. A lot of the year will be spent peering at the data to tease out emerging trends as we head towards the new normal.
The discernment of new trends requires the use of new data, and new tools. We have recently brought into the Recursion data set FHA Neighborhood Watch data, which was discussed previously in the context of partial claims[1]. These are the suspended mortgage payments for loans in forbearance that are rolled into a second lien, repaid only when the loan is extinguished. This is particularly useful for tracking the financial burden of forbearance by servicer. To accomplish this in a comprehensive manner, FHA releases this data for all endorsed loans. Using this data, we can examine trends in all loans vs those securitized in Ginnie Mae pools. Our data for the FHA Neighborhood Watch extends back only to April 2020, but the last eight months have been an interesting period in mortgage markets. |
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