• HOME
  • solutions
    • RECURSION ANALYZERS
    • Mortgage Company Data
    • Recursion DataCloud
    • Customized Solutions
  • BLOG
  • CLIENT LOGIN
    • Recursion Analyzers
  • ABOUT US
    • OVERVIEW
    • OUR TEAM
    • News & Events >
      • Recursion In News
      • Recursion Data Citations
  • CONTACT
RECURSION CO
  • HOME
  • solutions
    • RECURSION ANALYZERS
    • Mortgage Company Data
    • Recursion DataCloud
    • Customized Solutions
  • BLOG
  • CLIENT LOGIN
    • Recursion Analyzers
  • ABOUT US
    • OVERVIEW
    • OUR TEAM
    • News & Events >
      • Recursion In News
      • Recursion Data Citations
  • CONTACT
BLOG

Asset Price Inflation

6/4/2021

 
Recently, the Federal Reserve released its May 2021 Financial Stability Report[1], with a particular emphasis on asset valuations. Valuations are raised as a concern as “Prices of risky assets have generally increased since November with improving fundamentals, and, in some markets, prices are high compared with expected cash flows”. While not cited as a matter of high alarm the report commented that “House price growth continued to increase, and valuations appear high relative to history.”
​
On May 25, FHFA released the purchase-only house price index for March, showing a record-high growth rate of 13.9%, far above the bubble-era peak of 10.7% attained in 2005[2]. Housing fundamentals are of course supportive with mortgage rates below 3% and economic activity rebounding as vaccine optimism spreads. The unique factor now in housing is the impact of the pandemic on preferences for housing away from density and towards suburban and smaller-urban centers. This new fundamental can easily be seen via booming housing demand during the pandemic as measured here by purchase mortgage deliveries to Freddie Mac[3].
Picture
In a recent post we noted that occupancy type can play a role in overall market activity[4]. It’s interesting to note that the period of time from 2017-2019 when house prices rose at a pace faster than overall demand was during a period of softening of investor activity in the market:
Picture
​The “smart money” it seems, was put off by high valuations during that period, but ultimately returned with the onset of the pandemic and associated new positive fundamental. Another example underscoring the importance of big data tools in the assessment of macro trends.

[1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/financial-stability-report-20210506.pdf
[2] https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/Pages/US-House-Price-Index-Report-2021-Q1.aspx
[3] We use Freddie Mac instead to total GSE deliveries because Freddie loan-level disclosures go back to 2007 while similar Fannie Mae data commence in 2013.
[4] https://www.recursionco.com/blog/the-occupancy-type-flag-i

    Archives

    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    May 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019

    Tags

    All
    Affordability
    ARM
    Bank\Nonbank
    Borrower Assistant Plan
    Cash Window
    Climate Change
    CMBS
    CMO
    Conforming Loan
    Conventional Loan
    COVID 19
    CPR\CDR\CRR\CCR
    Credit Score\DTI\LTV
    CRT\CAS\STACR
    Delinquency
    Early Buyout
    Early Payment Default
    ESG
    ET Pools
    Fannie Mae
    Fed
    FHA
    FHFA
    Forbearance
    Foreclosure
    Foreign Investor
    Freddie Mac
    Ginnie Mae
    Green Loans
    HECM
    HELOC
    HMDA
    HUD
    LMI
    Manufactured Housing
    Modified Loans
    MSR
    Multifamily
    Occupancy Type\NOO
    Partial Claim
    Payoff
    PIW
    Prepayment
    Purchase Loans
    Recursion In News
    Refi Loans
    Reperforming
    RG Pools
    Rural Housing
    Single Family
    Special Eligibility Program
    TBA Market
    TIC
    TPO
    UMBS
    US Treasury
    VA

RECURSION

SOLUTIONS ​
Recursion Analyzers
​
Mortgage Company Data
Recursion DataCloud
Customized Solutions


ABOUT US  ​
Overview
​Our team
CLIENT LOGIN   ​
Recursion Analyzers

CONTACT

224 West 30th St., Suite 303, New York, NY 10001
Contact Us

Picture
Copyright © 2022 Recursion, Co. All rights reserved.​
  • HOME
  • solutions
    • RECURSION ANALYZERS
    • Mortgage Company Data
    • Recursion DataCloud
    • Customized Solutions
  • BLOG
  • CLIENT LOGIN
    • Recursion Analyzers
  • ABOUT US
    • OVERVIEW
    • OUR TEAM
    • News & Events >
      • Recursion In News
      • Recursion Data Citations
  • CONTACT