• HOME
  • solutions
    • RECURSION ANALYZERS
    • Mortgage Company Data
    • Recursion DataCloud
    • Customized Solutions
  • BLOG
  • CLIENT LOGIN
    • Recursion Analyzers
  • ABOUT US
    • OVERVIEW
    • OUR TEAM
    • News & Events >
      • Recursion In News
      • Recursion Data Citations
  • CONTACT
RECURSION CO
  • HOME
  • solutions
    • RECURSION ANALYZERS
    • Mortgage Company Data
    • Recursion DataCloud
    • Customized Solutions
  • BLOG
  • CLIENT LOGIN
    • Recursion Analyzers
  • ABOUT US
    • OVERVIEW
    • OUR TEAM
    • News & Events >
      • Recursion In News
      • Recursion Data Citations
  • CONTACT
BLOG

An Observation Regarding the Recent Decline in EPDs

5/23/2023

 
The release of the Agency performance data in early May provided confirmation that the dip in Early Payment Defaults[1] we have witnessed over the last three months ended a 16-month long uptrend in this statistic for FHA loans. A similar but far more muted pattern can be seen for VA and conventional mortgages. In a previous post, we speculated that the uptrend was correlated with the higher inflationary trend observed since early 2021[2]. Below please find an update of the chart:
Picture
RUN UNDERLYING QUERY 1
RUN UNDERLYING QUERY 2

Read More

Banking Crisis Extends Mortgage Winter

5/10/2023

 
As daily April Agency mortgage loan delivery data completed, we found convincing evidence that the freeze in market activities we have witnessed since the fourth quarter of 2022 is continuing, although there are some new twists.
​
Here is the chart for the loan counts of purchase market deliveries to the GSEs back to 2019. Rather than do this as a time series, we stack the years over an annual monthly x-axis to better correct for the seasonality in the time series:
Picture
RUN UNDERLYING QUERY

Read More

The Condo Market and the “E” in ESG

4/27/2023

 
The recent release of “Social Scores” on the part of the GSE’s serves to point out the broad range of ESG issues facing the mortgage market.[1] Of course, this covers a lot of policy territory, and over time investors, lenders and policymakers will have to come to grips with the details associated with these concerns. In today’s post, we look at environmental issues related to the condo market.

These issues came to a head with the disaster in Surfside Florida in June 2021, when the partial collapse of Champlain Towers South, a 12-story condo, resulted in 98 deaths and over $1 billion being awarded to victims in a class action lawsuit. Implications for regulation and insurance costs continue to be felt as the event brought home the immediacy of issues surrounding climate change to the general public.

In October 2021, Fannie Mae issued a Lender Letter presenting tightened requirements that impact the eligibility of loans made in buildings with five or more attached units[2]. These new policies were “designed to support the ongoing viability of condo and co-op projects…(as) aging infrastructure and significant deferred maintenance are a growing concern across the nation.” These new standards came into effect on January 1, 2022. Among other things, they may land a building on an “unavailable” status if there is significant deferred maintenance, failure to pass local regulatory inspections, or not meeting the 10% budget reserve requirement.
​
To see if there is any impact, we start with a look at Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae condo loan deliveries from January 2019 to March 2023. During this period, the two Enterprises delivered 1.16 million purchase loans securitized by a condo, of which Fannie Mae generally had a share of about 57%:
Picture
RUN UNDERLYING QUERY

Read More

The Impact of ESG on the GSE Market

4/19/2023

 
Since the end of last year, the Government Sponsored Enterprises have released so-called “Social Score” Indexes that are made to appeal to ESG investors. Both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac produce scores at the pool level based on a variety of social metrics. The following methodology summary comes from Fannie Mae[1] (Freddie Mac has adopted the same methodology as Fannie Mae’s):

Read More

Social Trends from 2022 HMDA

4/5/2023

 
In a previous note, we looked at mortgage trends derived from the recent release of 2022 HMDA data[1]. Of course, HMDA is a prime data source for analysts and policymakers who seek to understand how social and economic trends interact. The most discussed issue is the distribution of originations by race. Below find a bar chart for the share of originations by race annually from 2004-2022 by loan count:

Read More

2022 HMDA is Out!

3/27/2023

 
The cherry blossoms are blooming, which means it’s time for the HMDA preliminary data set to be released. The dataset provides a social underpinning to the nation’s mortgage market and enhances our understanding of the behavior of borrowers and lenders. The 2022 dataset has been particularly eagerly awaited, as we get our view on the new world of high inflation and mortgage rates for the first time in decades. We start with origination volumes and get not just confirmation of the onset of mortgage winter, but some breakdown of its characteristics.

Read More

A Look at the Ginnie Mae 40-Year Mod

3/24/2023

 
With all eyes on the turmoil in the banking sector, it’s good to see that policymakers continue to innovate to help borrowers. Earlier this month, HUD published Mortgagee Letter 2023-06 “Establishment of the 40-Year Loan Modification Loss Mitigation Option”, which establishes the 40-year standalone Loan Modification into FHA’s COVID-19 Loss Mitigation policies[1]. The standalone 40-yr mod is scheduled to be implemented by May 8. This follows the establishment of a 40-yr modification with a partial claim in April 2022[2]. The introduction of standalone 40-yr mods reminded us that we haven’t focused on the progress of the 40-year mod with a partial claim identified by pool prefix “ET”. Below find a chart of issuance by program:

Read More

Recursion cited in National Mortgage News Story “UBS, Credit Suisse pact stabilizes key source of mortgage financing”

3/24/2023

 
In a recent story about the impact of the recent banking turmoil, National Mortgage News cited Recursion data in noting that both UBS and Credit Suisse have little direct tie to mortgage lending in the US. In the same story, Recursion Chief Research Officer Richard Koss was cited as saying that a hard landing in the economy related to bank issues could lead to cost pressure on servicers.  
​
The article can be found on the National Mortgage News website (paywall).
Picture
<<Previous

    Archives

    April 2023
    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    May 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019

    Tags

    All
    Affordability
    ARM
    Bank\Nonbank
    Borrower Assistant Plan
    Cash Window
    Climate Change
    CMBS
    CMO
    Conforming Loan
    Conventional Loan
    COVID 19
    CPR\CDR\CRR\CCR
    Credit Score\DTI\LTV
    CRT\CAS\STACR
    Delinquency
    Early Buyout
    Early Payment Default
    ESG
    ET Pools
    Fannie Mae
    Fed
    FHA
    FHFA
    Forbearance
    Foreclosure
    Foreign Investor
    Freddie Mac
    Ginnie Mae
    Green Loans
    HECM
    HELOC
    HMDA
    HUD
    LMI
    Manufactured Housing
    Modified Loans
    MSR
    Multifamily
    Occupancy Type\NOO
    Partial Claim
    Payoff
    PIW
    Prepayment
    Purchase Loans
    Recursion In News
    Refi Loans
    Reperforming
    RG Pools
    Rural Housing
    Single Family
    Special Eligibility Program
    TBA Market
    TIC
    TPO
    UMBS
    US Treasury
    VA

RECURSION

SOLUTIONS ​
Recursion Analyzers
​
Mortgage Company Data
Recursion DataCloud
Customized Solutions


ABOUT US  ​
Overview
​Our team
CLIENT LOGIN   ​
Recursion Analyzers

CONTACT

224 West 30th St., Suite 303, New York, NY 10001
Contact Us

Picture
Copyright © 2022 Recursion, Co. All rights reserved.​
  • HOME
  • solutions
    • RECURSION ANALYZERS
    • Mortgage Company Data
    • Recursion DataCloud
    • Customized Solutions
  • BLOG
  • CLIENT LOGIN
    • Recursion Analyzers
  • ABOUT US
    • OVERVIEW
    • OUR TEAM
    • News & Events >
      • Recursion In News
      • Recursion Data Citations
  • CONTACT