Beginning with the April 18 edition, Recursion data is being regularly featured in Commercial Mortgage Alert (CMA). The data utilized is debt costs for Agency commercial mortgages. We are pleased that Recursion is seen by leading industry publications as a definitive source of key market indicators.
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On January 16, 2025, FHA updated its COVID-19 Recovery Loss Mitigation Options available to borrowers to help them avoid foreclosure and sustain homeownership[1]. Briefly, there is a set of tools available to delinquent borrowers that allow them to return to making recurring payments. This is a complicated set of programs, but we break these down into three main categories:
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1. Partial Claims: For borrowers that have unpaid balances but can make payments, a “second lien” type of structure is created consisting of the unpaid balance that comes due when the “first lien” is terminated by a sale or a refinance. This process is known as a “Partial Claim”. A lot of loans are securitized into RG (reperforming) pools by Ginnie Mae. According to the FHA 2024 MMI Fund report, 1.4mm partial claims were applied during FY 2021-FY 2024[2].
2. Modification: ​Should a borrower be unable to make payments following a partial claim, they may be modified to reduce balances going forward. The main modification is achieved by extending the loan term to as long as 30 years. Ginnie Mae securitizes these loans into Mod pools.
3. Extended Term: Should available modification programs not allow the borrower to return to current status, a last-ditch option is to extend the maturity out to 40 years. These loans are securitized by Ginnie Mae into “ET pools”.

Below find a chart of 90+ day delinquencies by loss mitigation types, and a table showing the current market share of each as of April 1, 2025:

HMDA 2024 preliminary data was released by the CFPB at the end of March 2025. There is a wealth of information contained in this release, below find a summary of important national trends.

1.Origination by bank/nonbank

On November 1, 2024 Commercial Mortgage Alert published an article “ Fannie Shifting Further From Floaters”, which discussed the impact of higher interest rates on the distribution of its multifamily issuance:
 
“Fannie has not purchased a floating-rate or fixed/float­ing hybrid multifamily loan since November 2023, according to data from Recursion. After purchasing $15.26 billion of floaters and hybrids in 2022, or 22.1% of total volume, the agency acquired just $413.2 million of floaters last year, or 0.8% of volume, according to Recursion.”
 
We are pleased to be the trusted provider of accurate, high-quality data to a wide range of market participants.

Recursion has released  Macro Housing Analytics October 2024 report. Please click to READ FULL REPORT .

With many homeowners locked into their properties by low mortgage rates, and listings for existing homes are generally low, the onus for property availability in desirable areas falls on the homebuilders with new homes. The newly released HMDA data shows the population is flowing towards areas of higher climate risk[1], with the understanding that our research covers new homes with a mortgage only. HMDA data does not come with client risk measurements. However, FHFA provides a list of census tracts as “Designated Disaster Areas (DDAs)”, which are located “in a county designated by the federal government as adversely affected by a declared major disaster under the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) administration, where housing assistance payments were authorized by FEMA”[2].We incorporate these into our HMDA Analyzer, which contains lender and borrower information. By so doing, we can perform complex analyses of mortgage origination in many dimensions.
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We first take a look at the heat map for 2023 DDAs provided by FHFA[3], noticing that DDAs are concentrated in coastal states, especially Florida and Texas: