• HOME
  • solutions
    • RECURSION ANALYZERS
    • Mortgage Company Data
    • Recursion DataCloud
    • Customized Solutions
  • BLOG
  • CLIENT LOGIN
    • Recursion Analyzers
  • ABOUT US
    • OVERVIEW
    • OUR TEAM
    • News & Events >
      • Recursion In News
      • Recursion Data Citations
  • CONTACT
RECURSION CO
  • HOME
  • solutions
    • RECURSION ANALYZERS
    • Mortgage Company Data
    • Recursion DataCloud
    • Customized Solutions
  • BLOG
  • CLIENT LOGIN
    • Recursion Analyzers
  • ABOUT US
    • OVERVIEW
    • OUR TEAM
    • News & Events >
      • Recursion In News
      • Recursion Data Citations
  • CONTACT
BLOG

Agency MBS Issuance Trends in an Environment of Rising Mortgage Rates and House Prices

5/10/2022

 
With the 30-year mortgage rate surging to a 13-year high near 5 ¼% and the FHFA purchase-only house price index at a record-high 19.42% in February (edging out the prior record of 19.39% in July 2021), we are in an unprecedented environment in the mortgage market. As such, it makes sense to update our analysis of the trend in issuance updated through April. Of particular interest in this regard are the FHA and VA programs.
​
Let’s start by looking at FHA. By loan count, there were 107,500 FHA loans issued in GNM pools in April, with a decline of over 1/3 from the same month a year earlier. One special interest is the evolution of the share of issuance by loan purpose:
Picture
run underlying query
The largest share is from purchase mortgages which have comprised a steady share near 50% over the past year. But there are remarkable trends in the category of reperforming loans (RG and Mod pools) and refis. In terms of reperforming loans, the share of RG and MOD loans together in April came to almost a third of total issuance for the fifth consecutive month. Even more dramatically, streamline and non-C/S refis fell to a remarkable combined share of 7% from 35% last April. Most striking of all is the doubling in the share of cashout refis from 7% in April 2021 to 15% last month. So far, the surge in home prices has dominated that in interest rates in terms of consumer incentives for this product. Insofar as deliveries in April represent closings in February or March, we know that these trends continued, and it will be very interesting to watch this data over the next couple of months.
​
For comparison purposes, we turn next to VA loans:
Picture
run underlying query
In this case, there were 63,500 VA loans securitized in VA pools in April, a 3-year low. This is a drop of over 57% from a year earlier.  The first take-away is how dominant the refi market has been for VA in recent years. In March 2021, the combined share of streamline and Non-C/s Refis stood at 67% compared to 37% for FHA! Interestingly at present, the purchase share for VA is very close to that for FHA, near 50%. Reperforming loans have increased but stand at a modest 12% of issuance in April compared to well less than half that figure for FHA. But the most remarkable figure is in the category of cashout refis, which stood at 31% of April deliveries! VA borrowers are clearly more sensitive to home prices than interest rates in their lending decisions than are FHA borrowers.
​
Once again, we see how big data in the cloud can shed light on consumer and lender behaviors in an unprecedented market environment. As we reach further into the unknown, such tools will be essential for strategic decision-making across private and public market participants.
Recursion is a preeminent provider of data and analytics in the mortgage industry.
Please contact us if you have any questions about the underlying data referenced in this article.

    Archives

    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    May 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019

    Tags

    All
    Affordability
    ARM
    Bank\Nonbank
    Borrower Assistant Plan
    Cash Window
    Climate Change
    CMBS
    CMO
    Conforming Loan
    Conventional Loan
    COVID 19
    CPR\CDR\CRR\CCR
    Credit Score\DTI\LTV
    CRT\CAS\STACR
    Delinquency
    Early Buyout
    Early Payment Default
    ESG
    ET Pools
    Fannie Mae
    Fed
    FHA
    FHFA
    Forbearance
    Foreclosure
    Foreign Investor
    Freddie Mac
    Ginnie Mae
    Green Loans
    HECM
    HELOC
    HMDA
    HUD
    LMI
    Manufactured Housing
    Modified Loans
    MSR
    Multifamily
    Occupancy Type\NOO
    Partial Claim
    Payoff
    PIW
    Prepayment
    Purchase Loans
    Recursion In News
    Refi Loans
    Reperforming
    RG Pools
    Rural Housing
    Single Family
    Special Eligibility Program
    TBA Market
    TIC
    TPO
    UMBS
    US Treasury
    VA

RECURSION

SOLUTIONS ​
Recursion Analyzers
​
Mortgage Company Data
Recursion DataCloud
Customized Solutions


ABOUT US  ​
Overview
​Our team
CLIENT LOGIN   ​
Recursion Analyzers

CONTACT

224 West 30th St., Suite 303, New York, NY 10001
Contact Us

Picture
Copyright © 2022 Recursion, Co. All rights reserved.​
  • HOME
  • solutions
    • RECURSION ANALYZERS
    • Mortgage Company Data
    • Recursion DataCloud
    • Customized Solutions
  • BLOG
  • CLIENT LOGIN
    • Recursion Analyzers
  • ABOUT US
    • OVERVIEW
    • OUR TEAM
    • News & Events >
      • Recursion In News
      • Recursion Data Citations
  • CONTACT