February is a “Birthday” month at Recursion. Thanks to the birthday employees, Sunny and Tianci, we celebrated TWICE and ate cakes TWICE in February. Happy Birthday Sunny! Happy Birthday Tianci! Best wishes to both of you. Grow well in your new year at Recursion!
PS: Surprise gifts from our CEO. Spy with your smart eyes on the pictures😊
In the wake of the economic dislocation that occurred with the onset of the Global Financial Crisis, (GFC), central banks responded with a variety of policy innovations, including Large-Scale Asset Purchases (LSAP’s), also known as Quantitative Easing (QE). Different central banks have implemented these programs in distinct ways, but the Federal Reserve purchased massive amounts of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to place downward pressure on long-term interest rates. (Chart 1)
In February 2019, BB&T announced its acquisition of SunTrust Bank for about $28 billion in stock. In December that year, the nation’s 6th biggest bank, Truist, was created. There are, of course, a multitude of reasons why financial institutions merge. A classic explanation is that they wish to obtain economies of scale by combining overlapping operations in particular markets. As regional commercial banks with a heavy consumer focus, both these institutions faced earnings pressure from developing headwinds in the mortgage market as interest rates climbed in 2018. (Table 1).
A key metric in the decision regarding investment in MBS is prepayment speeds. Investors concerned about lower interest rates naturally find value in lower-prepaying pools. In looking into the drivers of differing prepayments, it’s useful to look into differences in performance for different groups of loans. Chart 1 looks at the prepayment speeds for the entire books of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgages as measured by the 1-month conditional prepayment speeds (CPR).